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送交者: conner 于 2015-03-11, 09:12:32:

回答: 驳斥科学网《方舟子妄批柴静捏造数据的错误》 由 方舟子 于 2015-03-11, 05:17:31:

即使死亡率直线上升,过几年北京人也不会死绝。死绝的死亡率是100%。

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2008年与2007年相比,死亡率实际上是下降的
,但与2005年比是上升的。

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In general, the health effect of PM2.5 remains strongly significant, whereas a null association is found between PM2.5-10 and daily mortality.

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As the temporary atmospheric pollution control measures were terminated mostly after the Olympic Games, the values of estimated percentages increased significantly even though the level of PM2.5 has decreased. That means the government would make less toxicity of PM pollution only by more rigorous reduction measures in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Unless strict measures are implemented now, the serious air
pollution disaster such as the London smog of 1952 or the smog event in masi river of Belgium will unfortunately occur in Beijing.

2009年的pm2.5数据可能有水分。

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jinyuan_Xin/publication/260727730_Time-series_analysis_of_mortality_effects_from_airborne_particulate_matter_size_fractions_in_Beijing/links/5407c8a80cf2bba34c247120.pdf




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