"1亿人的乙肝慢性携带者"算个啥?:通俗说路径依赖,历史大尺度


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送交者: bosebose 于 2015-04-10, 08:13:14:

回答: 方舟子这句话错了 由 jhuang 于 2015-04-09, 21:48:55:

路径依赖

right now, assume both 乙肝,丙肝 are treatable, then it is not 路径依赖;


if 丙肝 is not treatable, and you get it, then your life, luck are all 路径依赖: you get 乙肝, you are ok; you get 丙肝, you are done this life.


历史大尺度


"好消息是现代科学就在最近一两年内几乎攻克了丙肝"。

and assume in 5 years, 土共政府让人民享受丙肝的特效药治疗, then to you, 5 years is 历史大尺度, if you can make it, then your life is not 路径依赖 anymore by that time, you get 丙肝, or 乙肝, you don't care, you will get treatment and you will be ok, life goes on;

but if you cannot make your life survive that 5 years 历史大尺度, then sorry, you are 路径依赖 again, once hit by bad luck, the only path for you is the one leading towards hell.

in general, 热统计物理学,时间有方向,路径依赖,初试点或条件很重要,生死攸关, the so-called probability, luck, etc, assuming locally we are near equilibrium all the time, although 时间有方向 long long term. short term, 时间 has no 方向, symmetrical, so we don't think of death much, when we are normally living our day to day life.

even for really long term,
there is this theoretical argument, that if we make 历史大尺度 long or big enough, the system or heatbath is still a fundamentally normalized one, 路径依赖 will become non-路径依赖, 乙肝,丙肝 are all treatable, life is beautiful almost regardless of what you do, communism kind of.

what is point?

汉共军一般是倾向于在历史大尺度上把握世界的,考虑的是中华民族几千 year 的问题, so watch out, in terms of 乙肝,丙肝 stuff.


by the way, I try not to be emotionally attached to 汉共军 culture in anyway, so I can try modelling it, avoiding referencing it from any 特殊参考系.




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