人大的专家又有另外的说法，说统计局的数字不现实，他们的抽样表明生育率是1.8%。

所有跟贴·加跟贴·新语丝读书论坛

送交者: 校长于 2008-03-15, 14:03:13:

回答: 这回不是民科了，北大人口学专家(不是人口所的)出来讲话了。由 Amsel 于 2008-03-15, 12:34:11:

专家多了，不能偏听偏信。到昨天俺就搞明白了，反正不能听你的。俺开始以为你半专业，原来连基本数字都没整清爽！

俺觉得管他二十年以后的事没多大现实意义。现在先把人均财富整上去再说。到时候人口不够了可以从越南、非洲、印尼等国进口么，别像
小日本那样闭关锁国就行。

所有跟贴:

你老也玩儿这种小儿科的撒谎把戏。人大人口所的1.8指定是90年代末， - Amsel (77 bytes) 2008-03-15, 15:22:05 (211913)
- 俺又不懂，不用撒谎说俺懂。你是不懂装懂。 - 校长 (503 bytes) 2008-03-15, 15:42:00 (211916)
  - 你老再不懂也不会不懂九十年代末不是现在吧？俺随后纠正了年出生一千多万么。 (无内容) - Amsel (0 bytes) 2008-03-15, 20:45:02 (211974)
  - 这么说总和生育率应在1.2 - 1.8，够低的，看来中国未来不看好，大萧条是注定了 (无内容) - 董愚 (0 bytes) 2008-03-15, 16:30:10 (211929)
You don't need to believe me and I don't need to convince you. - Amsel (69 bytes) 2008-03-15, 14:44:49 (211907)
- That 1.8% cannot be true; otherwise this rate would have been constant - Amsel (111 bytes) 2008-03-15, 14:50:37 (211910)
^^现在才知道这位是“连基本数字都没整清爽“？ - mangolasi (173 bytes) 2008-03-15, 14:08:56 (211904)
- 要我说你干脆把这个人口问题写成毕业论文好了 - deadmeat (68 bytes) 2008-03-15, 14:49:42 (211909)
  - 这么obvious的东西，没有任何学术价值，就是这里才有人把易XX那样 - mangolasi (120 bytes) 2008-03-15, 15:42:26 (211917)
    - 白大哥对中土的人口政策有明确共识了吗？ - deadmeat (22 bytes) 2008-03-15, 15:49:21 (211919)
      - neither. But those aren't technical questions anymore, and it depends - mangolasi (550 bytes) 2008-03-15, 15:55:23 (211920)
        
        does it mean "technically" we can say the population control - deadmeat (82 bytes) 2008-03-15, 16:04:13 (211922)
        
        kind of. The problem of "aging" is still debatable in the west - mangolasi (342 bytes) 2008-03-15, 16:10:09 (211923)
        
        see, you have some ideas on this issue which 白大哥 - deadmeat (20 bytes) 2008-03-15, 16:24:10 (211925)
        
        they've noticed. Some 白大哥 said "aging" issue is a crank... (无内容) - mangolasi (0 bytes) 2008-03-15, 16:26:45 (211926)
        
        have to stop now...the teacher for whom I am doing RA will come - mangolasi (82 bytes) 2008-03-15, 16:28:34 (211928)
        
        So my posts were just a repeat of my reading... (无内容) - mangolasi (0 bytes) 2008-03-15, 16:27:29 (211927)
        
        not "main" technical question... - mangolasi (43 bytes) 2008-03-15, 15:56:30 (211921)
    - 有人看东西前连根据常识或算术提出疑问“都不会“的时候 (无内容) - mangolasi (0 bytes) 2008-03-15, 15:43:57 (211918)

加跟贴